Sampaio Correa 2–2 Potiguar Mossoró: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Potiguar Mossoró

1/7/2024

Copa do Nordeste · 1st Qualifying RoundEstádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sampaio Correa39%

×Draw26%

Potiguar Mossoró34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchPotiguar Mossoró

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

Sampaio Correa

1.36

Potiguar Mossoró

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

1.06

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.06

Potiguar Mossoró

1.33

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

1.17

Potiguar Mossoró

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Potiguar Mossoró+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Potiguar Mossoró →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

66%

Sampaio Correa or Potiguar Mossoró

74%

Draw or Potiguar Mossoró

61%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

18%

Potiguar Mossoró wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

74%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

39%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

16%

Potiguar Mossoró 1+ goals

71%

Potiguar Mossoró 2+ goals

36%

Potiguar Mossoró 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

53%

Potiguar Mossoró (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Potiguar Mossoró away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.06 + Potiguar Mossoró defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Potiguar Mossoró attack 1.33 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

39%

level

26%

Potiguar Mossoró scores more

34%

Sampaio Correa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff