Sampaio Correa 0–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

5/25/2023

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sampaio Correa49%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Sampaio Correa

1.38

Ponte Preta

0.88

Sampaio Correa creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 115 away

1.41

creates per match

0.84

0.91

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.41

Ponte Preta

0.84

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.91

Ponte Preta

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

76%

Sampaio Correa or Ponte Preta

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta

51%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

23%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

75%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

40%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

16%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

67%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Ponte Preta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ponte Preta attack 0.84 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

49%

level

28%

Ponte Preta scores more

24%

Sampaio Correa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Mateus Silva

Ponte Preta · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

Luiz Felipe

41'

Mateus Silva

45+1'

Mateus Pivô

46'

Venícius← Eloir

59'

Bill← Vinícius Alves

61'

Cássio Gabriel← Matheus Jesus

69'

Ramon← Léo Naldi

70'

Gui Pira← Dudu

75'

Jhony Douglas← Maurício

83'

Caique França

87'

Rafael Vila← Marcinho

87'

Rodrigo Souza← Neto Paraíba

88'

Edson

90+2'

Filipinho

90'

Thomás Kayck← Edson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampaioPonte

Overview

56%Possession44%

29Total Shots10

8Corners4

21Fouls18

Shots

29Total Shots10

3On Target3

13Off Target5

13Blocked2

18Inside Box9

11Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

445Total Passes351

378Accurate Passes283

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2

Serie B: Sampaio Correa 0–0 Ponte Preta

Sampaio Correa and Ponte Preta drew 0-0 in Serie B on May 25, 2023.

Sampaio Correa controlled possession (56%) and registered 29 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.

Sampaio Correa vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sampaio Correa 0–0 Ponte Preta