Sampaio Correa 1–0 Parnahyba: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Parnahyba

Fabio Aguiar 57'

Thiaguinho 53'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sampaio Correa62%

×Draw23%

Parnahyba15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchParnahyba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.75

Sampaio Correa

1.80

Parnahyba

0.75

Sampaio Correa creates 140% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

0.64

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.50

Parnahyba

0.86

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.64

Parnahyba

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Parnahyba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Parnahyba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

85%

Sampaio Correa or Parnahyba

77%

Draw or Parnahyba

38%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

36%

Parnahyba wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

83%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

54%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

27%

Parnahyba 1+ goals

53%

Parnahyba 2+ goals

17%

Parnahyba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

80%

Parnahyba (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Parnahyba away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.50 + Parnahyba defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Parnahyba attack 0.86 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

62%

level

23%

Parnahyba scores more

15%

Sampaio Correa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Thiaguinho

56'

Fabio Aguiar

57'

Fabio Aguiar

Sampaio

Parnahyba

⚽

⚽

Manager: Zé Augusto

Sampaio Correa substitutes

CaviWesleyNadsonBalãoIsaíasHugoAdrianoEduardoEvangelistaHianPimentinhaRodolfo

Manager: Betinho

Parnahyba substitutes

EmersonBaltazarBismarckCardosoJanilsonRaiFlávioHenriqueLalimLoiolaWesley