Sampaio Correa 2–1 Caxias: Result & Stats | Serie C

Sampaio Correa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Caxias

Bruno Baio 90+3', 89' (pen)

Álvaro 39'

6/12/2024

Serie C · Round 3Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sampaio Correa48%

×Draw28%

Caxias24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchCaxias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Sampaio Correa

1.35

Caxias

0.86

Sampaio Correa creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

1.36

creates per match

0.77

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.36

Caxias

0.77

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.95

Caxias

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Caxias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

76%

Sampaio Correa or Caxias

72%

Draw or Caxias

52%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

23%

Caxias wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

74%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

39%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

15%

Caxias 1+ goals

58%

Caxias 2+ goals

21%

Caxias 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

67%

Caxias (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.36 + Caxias defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Caxias attack 0.77 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

48%

level

28%

Caxias scores more

24%

Sampaio Correa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Álvaro

49'

Gabriel Silva← Mateus Mendes

51'

Fabio

56'

Marcelo Piauí← Ferreira

56'

Nadson← Adauto Júnior

62'

Elyeser← Emerson Martins

62'

Peninha← Tomas Bastos

70'

Jhonata Varela← Gazão

70'

João Felipe← Breno

79'

Bruno Baio← Gabriel Silva

79'

Emerson Souza← Álvaro

79'

Vitor Feijão← Pedro Cuiabá

85'

Vitor Feijão

89'

Bruno BaioPenalty

90+3'

Bruno Baio

Sampaio4-4-2

Caxias4-5-1

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Zé Augusto

56'▲Marcelo Piauí←▼Ferreira

56'▲Nadson←▼Adauto Júnior

70'▲Jhonata Varela←▼Gazão

70'▲João Felipe←▼Breno

79'▲Bruno Baio←▼Gabriel Silva

Sampaio Correa substitutes

PiauíNadsonVarelaFelipeBaioEduardoBetãoEdreanEloirEscuroItambéLopes

Manager: Argel Fuchs

49'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Mateus Mendes

62'▲Elyeser←▼Emerson Martins

62'▲Peninha←▼Tomas Bastos

79'▲Emerson Souza←▼Álvaro

79'▲Vitor Feijão←▼Pedro Cuiabá

Caxias substitutes

SilvaElyeserPeninhaSouzaFeijãoHenriqueCoelhoBarbaDirceuSpaniol

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Caxias

Sampaio Correa beat Caxias 2-1 in Serie C on June 12, 2024.

Goals: Álvaro (39'), Bruno Baio (89' pen, 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.

Sampaio Correa vs Caxias — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Caxias