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Šamorín vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Šamorín
Šamorín
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
3/3/20242. liga2. liga · Round 18Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Šamorín55%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Trebišov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šamorín
1.87
Slavoj Trebišov
1.11

Šamorín creates 68% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 69 away

creates per match

Šamorín
1.73
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Šamorín
1.26
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Šamorín+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šamorín ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Šamorín or draw
78%
Šamorín or Slavoj Trebišov
77%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
45%

Winning margin

Šamorín wins by 2+
31%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Šamorín 1+ goals
85%
Šamorín 2+ goals
56%
Šamorín 3+ goals
29%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
67%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
30%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Šamorín (draw refunded)
71%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šamorín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.26 · 96 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šamorín attack 1.73 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.87

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Šamorín defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Šamorín scores more
55%
level
23%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
22%

Šamorín at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šamorín vs Slavoj Trebišov

Šamorín and Slavoj Trebišov drew 2-2 in 2. liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Šamorín.