Šamorín 3–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen: Result & Stats

Šamorín

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotíva Zvolen

9/22/2024

2. liga · Round 8Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šamorín46%

×Draw25%

Lokomotíva Zvolen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠamorínExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Šamorín

1.60

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.21

Šamorín creates 32% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

1.73

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Šamorín

1.73

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.17

allows per match

Šamorín

1.26

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šamorín+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šamorín ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Šamorín or draw

71%

Šamorín or Lokomotíva Zvolen

75%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

54%

Winning margin

Šamorín wins by 2+

24%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Šamorín 1+ goals

80%

Šamorín 2+ goals

47%

Šamorín 3+ goals

22%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

34%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Šamorín (draw refunded)

62%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šamorín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.26 · 96 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šamorín attack 1.73 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Šamorín defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Šamorín scores more

46%

level

25%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

29%

Šamorín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff