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Šamorín vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Šamorín
Šamorín
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
5/2/20212. liga2. liga · Round 27Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Šamorín51%
×Draw23%
Dubnica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šamorín
1.81
Dubnica
1.23

Šamorín creates 47% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 55 away

creates per match

Šamorín
1.73
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Šamorín
1.26
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Šamorín+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šamorín ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Šamorín or draw
74%
Šamorín or Dubnica
77%
Draw or Dubnica
49%

Winning margin

Šamorín wins by 2+
28%
Dubnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šamorín 1+ goals
84%
Šamorín 2+ goals
54%
Šamorín 3+ goals
27%
Dubnica 1+ goals
71%
Dubnica 2+ goals
35%
Dubnica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Šamorín (draw refunded)
66%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šamorín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.26 · 96 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šamorín attack 1.73 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Šamorín defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Šamorín scores more
51%
level
23%
Dubnica scores more
26%

Šamorín at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Šamorín 3–0 Dubnica

Šamorín beat Dubnica 3-0 in 2. liga on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Šamorín.