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Šamorín vs Dolný Kubín — 2. liga 2019

Šamorín
Šamorín
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
4/9/20232. liga2. liga · Round 24Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šamorín64%
×Draw20%
Dolný Kubín16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šamorín
2.15
Dolný Kubín
0.98

Šamorín creates 119% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 30 away

creates per match

Šamorín
1.73
Dolný Kubín
0.70

allows per match

Šamorín
1.26
Dolný Kubín
2.57

finishing

Šamorín+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šamorín ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Šamorín or draw
84%
Šamorín or Dolný Kubín
80%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
36%

Winning margin

Šamorín wins by 2+
40%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Šamorín 1+ goals
88%
Šamorín 2+ goals
63%
Šamorín 3+ goals
36%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
62%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
26%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Šamorín (draw refunded)
80%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šamorín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.26 · 96 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šamorín attack 1.73 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Šamorín defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Šamorín scores more
64%
level
20%
Dolný Kubín scores more
16%

Šamorín at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šamorín vs Dolný Kubín

Šamorín beat Dolný Kubín 3-1 in 2. liga on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Šamorín.