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Samgurali vs Surkhon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Samgurali
Samgurali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Surkhon
Surkhon
S. Chkhetiani 71'
S. Abdullazhonov 67'
S. Abdukhamidov 53'
2/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samgurali49%
×Draw24%
Surkhon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.73
Surkhon
1.23

Samgurali creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Samgurali
2.25
Surkhon
1.20

allows per match

Samgurali
1.25
Surkhon
1.20

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
73%
Samgurali or Surkhon
76%
Draw or Surkhon
51%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
26%
Surkhon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
82%
Samgurali 2+ goals
52%
Samgurali 3+ goals
25%
Surkhon 1+ goals
71%
Surkhon 2+ goals
35%
Surkhon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
64%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Surkhon away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 2.25 + Surkhon defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Surkhon attack 1.20 + Samgurali defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Samgurali scores more
49%
level
24%
Surkhon scores more
27%

Samgurali at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
S. Abdukhamidov
67'
S. Abdullazhonov
71'
S. Chkhetiani
Samgurali
Surkhon
Gomes Thiago
Manager: Gomes Thiago
Fevzi Davletov
Manager: Fevzi Davletov

Match Recap: Samgurali vs Surkhon

Surkhon beat Samgurali 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2026.

Goals: S. Abdukhamidov (53'), S. Abdullazhonov (67'), S. Chkhetiani (71').