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Samgurali vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samgurali
Samgurali
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
11/1/2021Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 16Stadioni 26 Maisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Samgurali58%
×Draw23%
Shukura20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.85
Shukura
0.98

Samgurali creates 89% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 36 away

creates per match

Samgurali
1.52
Shukura
0.86

allows per match

Samgurali
1.09
Shukura
2.19

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
80%
Samgurali or Shukura
77%
Draw or Shukura
42%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
33%
Shukura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
84%
Samgurali 2+ goals
55%
Samgurali 3+ goals
28%
Shukura 1+ goals
62%
Shukura 2+ goals
26%
Shukura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
75%
Shukura (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.52 + Shukura defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Shukura attack 0.86 + Samgurali defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Samgurali scores more
58%
level
23%
Shukura scores more
20%

Samgurali at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samgurali vs Shukura

Samgurali and Shukura drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga on November 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni 26 Maisi in Tskhaltubo.