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Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samgurali
Samgurali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
4/25/2026Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 926 May Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Samgurali35%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Tbilisi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.27
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 127 away

creates per match

Samgurali
1.52
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.57

allows per match

Samgurali
1.09
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.03

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
62%
Samgurali or Dinamo Tbilisi
74%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi
65%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
72%
Samgurali 2+ goals
36%
Samgurali 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
48%
Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.03 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.52 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.57 + Samgurali defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Samgurali scores more
35%
level
26%
Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
38%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Samgurali 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi

Dinamo Tbilisi beat Samgurali 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at 26 May Stadium in Tsqaltubo.