Samgurali II 2–3 Zestafoni: Result & Stats

Samgurali II

2 – 3

Zestafoni

5/26/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samgurali II26%

×Draw22%

Zestafoni52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samgurali IIExpected goals in this matchZestafoni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.02

Samgurali II

1.38

Zestafoni

2.02

Zestafoni creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

1.80

2.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Samgurali II

0.75

Zestafoni

1.80

allows per match

Samgurali II

2.25

Zestafoni

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samgurali II+0.00on par

Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali II ↓

Zestafoni →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Samgurali II or draw

48%

Samgurali II or Zestafoni

78%

Draw or Zestafoni

74%

Winning margin

Samgurali II wins by 2+

11%

Zestafoni wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Samgurali II 1+ goals

75%

Samgurali II 2+ goals

40%

Samgurali II 3+ goals

16%

Zestafoni 1+ goals

87%

Zestafoni 2+ goals

60%

Zestafoni 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Samgurali II (draw refunded)

33%

Zestafoni (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samgurali II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali II attack 0.75 + Zestafoni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zestafoni attack 1.80 + Samgurali II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Samgurali II scores more

26%

level

22%

Zestafoni scores more

52%

Zestafoni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff