Samgurali II 1–3 Telavi: Result & Stats

Samgurali II

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Telavi

N. Khelidze 12'

V. Patsatsia 79'

N. Basheleishvili 41'

R. Injgia 28'

4/21/2021

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Stadioni 26 Maisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samgurali II22%

×Draw24%

Telavi55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samgurali IIExpected goals in this matchTelavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.75

Samgurali II

1.00

Telavi

1.75

Telavi creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.75

creates per match

1.25

2.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Samgurali II

0.75

Telavi

1.25

allows per match

Samgurali II

2.25

Telavi

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samgurali II+0.00on par

Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali II ↓

Telavi →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Samgurali II or draw

45%

Samgurali II or Telavi

76%

Draw or Telavi

78%

Winning margin

Samgurali II wins by 2+

Telavi wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Samgurali II 1+ goals

63%

Samgurali II 2+ goals

26%

Samgurali II 3+ goals

Telavi 1+ goals

83%

Telavi 2+ goals

52%

Telavi 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Samgurali II (draw refunded)

28%

Telavi (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samgurali II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali II attack 0.75 + Telavi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Telavi attack 1.25 + Samgurali II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Samgurali II scores more

22%

level

24%

Telavi scores more

55%

Telavi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. Khelidze

28'

R. Injgia

41'

N. Basheleishvili

56'

Z. Tsitskishvili← G. Khabuliani

62'

S. Iobidze← T. Gobronidze

62'

P. Marakvelidze← R. Injgia

69'

G. Janelidze← I. Ashortia

69'

L. Shergelashvili← M. Basheleishvili

69'

L. Sosiashvili← L. Kokhreidze

76'

L. Tsulaia← N. Khvadagiani

79'

V. Patsatsia

85'

G. Jimsheleishvili← K. Kvetenadze

85'

K. Shvangiradze← N. Khelidze

Samgurali

Telavi

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Khelidze

Manager: V. Vashadze

62'▲S. Iobidze←▼T. Gobronidze

76'▲L. Tsulaia←▼N. Khvadagiani

85'▲G. Jimsheleishvili←▼K. Kvetenadze

85'▲K. Shvangiradze←▼N. Khelidze

Samgurali II substitutes

IobidzeTsulaiaJimsheleishviliShvangiradzeGelkhviidzeTokhadzeGureshidzeBurjanadzeVachiberadze

Manager: R. Gotsiridze

56'▲Z. Tsitskishvili←▼G. Khabuliani

62'▲P. Marakvelidze←▼R. Injgia

69'▲G. Janelidze←▼I. Ashortia

69'▲L. Shergelashvili←▼M. Basheleishvili

69'▲L. Sosiashvili←▼L. Kokhreidze

Telavi substitutes

TsitskishviliMarakvelidzeJanelidzeShergelashviliSosiashviliChochishviliArdazishviliShekiladze

Match Recap: Samgurali II vs Telavi

Telavi beat Samgurali II 3-1 in David Kipiani Cup on April 21, 2021.

Goals: N. Khelidze (12'), R. Injgia (28'), N. Basheleishvili (41'), V. Patsatsia (79').

The match was played at Stadioni 26 Maisi in Tskhaltubo.

Samgurali II vs Telavi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Samgurali II vs Telavi