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Samgurali II vs Didube 2014 — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Samgurali II
Samgurali II
FT
0 – 1
Didube 2014
Didube 2014
6/12/2025David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundStadioni 26 Maisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samgurali II19%
×Draw20%
Didube 201462%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali II
1.13
Didube 2014
2.21

Didube 2014 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Samgurali II
0.75
Didube 2014
2.17

allows per match

Samgurali II
2.25
Didube 2014
1.50

finishing

Samgurali II+0.00on par
Didube 2014+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali II ↓

Didube 2014 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Samgurali II or draw
38%
Samgurali II or Didube 2014
80%
Draw or Didube 2014
81%

Winning margin

Samgurali II wins by 2+
7%
Didube 2014 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Samgurali II 1+ goals
68%
Samgurali II 2+ goals
31%
Samgurali II 3+ goals
11%
Didube 2014 1+ goals
89%
Didube 2014 2+ goals
65%
Didube 2014 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Samgurali II (draw refunded)
23%
Didube 2014 (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Didube 2014 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali II attack 0.75 + Didube 2014 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Didube 2014 attack 2.17 + Samgurali II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Samgurali II scores more
19%
level
20%
Didube 2014 scores more
62%

Didube 2014 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Didube 2014 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samgurali II vs Didube 2014

Didube 2014 beat Samgurali II 1-0 in David Kipiani Cup on June 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadioni 26 Maisi in Tskaltubo (Tskhaltubo).