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Samger vs Steve Biko — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
2 – 1
Steve Biko
Steve Biko
6/12/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Samger32%
×Draw32%
Steve Biko35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
0.90
Steve Biko
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Steve Biko
0.86

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Steve Biko
0.92

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Steve Biko+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Steve Biko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Samger or draw
65%
Samger or Steve Biko
68%
Draw or Steve Biko
68%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
11%
Steve Biko wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
59%
Samger 2+ goals
23%
Samger 3+ goals
6%
Steve Biko 1+ goals
61%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
25%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
48%
Steve Biko (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Steve Biko away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.92 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Steve Biko defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Samger scores more
32%
level
32%
Steve Biko scores more
35%

Steve Biko at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Samger 2–1 Steve Biko

Samger beat Steve Biko 2-1 in GFA League on June 12, 2023.