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Samger vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
5/3/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Samger26%
×Draw32%
Real de Banjul43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
0.78
Real de Banjul
1.09

Real de Banjul creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Samger or draw
57%
Samger or Real de Banjul
68%
Draw or Real de Banjul
74%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
8%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
54%
Samger 2+ goals
18%
Samger 3+ goals
4%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
66%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
30%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
38%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Samger scores more
26%
level
32%
Real de Banjul scores more
43%

Real de Banjul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samger vs Real de Banjul

Samger beat Real de Banjul 2-1 in GFA League on May 3, 2023.