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Samger vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
3/6/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Samger39%
×Draw32%
Dutch Lions29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
1.05
Dutch Lions
0.86

Samger creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Samger or draw
71%
Samger or Dutch Lions
68%
Draw or Dutch Lions
61%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
16%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
65%
Samger 2+ goals
28%
Samger 3+ goals
9%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
58%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
21%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
57%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samger scores more
39%
level
32%
Dutch Lions scores more
29%

Samger at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Samger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Samger 0–0 Dutch Lions

Samger and Dutch Lions drew 0-0 in GFA League on March 6, 2026.