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Samger vs Bombada — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bombada
Bombada
K. Bojang 44'
B. Mbaye 34'
Unknown 54'
6/17/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Samger38%
×Draw30%
Bombada32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
1.08
Bombada
0.96

Samger creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Bombada
0.89

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Bombada
1.29

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Bombada+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Bombada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Samger or draw
68%
Samger or Bombada
70%
Draw or Bombada
62%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
15%
Bombada wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
66%
Samger 2+ goals
29%
Samger 3+ goals
10%
Bombada 1+ goals
62%
Bombada 2+ goals
25%
Bombada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
54%
Bombada (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Bombada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Bombada defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bombada attack 0.89 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Samger scores more
38%
level
30%
Bombada scores more
32%

Samger at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Samger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
B. Mbaye
44'
K. Bojang
54'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Samger 2–1 Bombada

Samger beat Bombada 2-1 in GFA League on June 17, 2026.

Goals: B. Mbaye (34'), K. Bojang (44'), ? (54').