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Samegrelo vs Merani Martvili — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Samegrelo
Samegrelo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martviliadvanced
8/7/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Chkhorotskus Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Samegrelo14%
×Draw14%
Merani Martvili72%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samegrelo
1.65
Merani Martvili
3.62

Merani Martvili creates 119% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Samegrelo
0.80
Merani Martvili
2.83

allows per match

Samegrelo
4.40
Merani Martvili
2.50

finishing

Samegrelo+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samegrelo ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Samegrelo or draw
28%
Samegrelo or Merani Martvili
86%
Draw or Merani Martvili
86%

Winning margin

Samegrelo wins by 2+
6%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Samegrelo 1+ goals
81%
Samegrelo 2+ goals
49%
Samegrelo 3+ goals
23%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
97%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
87%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Samegrelo (draw refunded)
17%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samegrelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samegrelo attack 0.80 + Merani Martvili defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Merani Martvili attack 2.83 + Samegrelo defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Samegrelo scores more
14%
level
14%
Merani Martvili scores more
72%

Merani Martvili at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Samegrelo 0–3 Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili beat Samegrelo 3-0 in David Kipiani Cup on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Chkhorotskus Tsentraluri Stadioni in Chkhorotsku.