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Samegrelo vs Kolkheti Khobi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Samegrelo
Samegrelo
FT
0 – 3
Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
8/21/2020David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Samegrelo10%
×Draw13%
Kolkheti Khobi77%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samegrelo
1.23
Kolkheti Khobi
3.37

Kolkheti Khobi creates 174% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Samegrelo
0.80
Kolkheti Khobi
2.33

allows per match

Samegrelo
4.40
Kolkheti Khobi
1.67

finishing

Samegrelo+0.00on par
Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samegrelo ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Samegrelo or draw
23%
Samegrelo or Kolkheti Khobi
87%
Draw or Kolkheti Khobi
90%

Winning margin

Samegrelo wins by 2+
4%
Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Samegrelo 1+ goals
71%
Samegrelo 2+ goals
35%
Samegrelo 3+ goals
13%
Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
96%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
84%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Samegrelo (draw refunded)
12%
Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samegrelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samegrelo attack 0.80 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kolkheti Khobi attack 2.33 + Samegrelo defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Samegrelo scores more
10%
level
13%
Kolkheti Khobi scores more
77%

Kolkheti Khobi at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Kolkheti Khobi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samegrelo vs Kolkheti Khobi

Kolkheti Khobi beat Samegrelo 3-0 in David Kipiani Cup on August 21, 2020.