Samegrelo 4–3 Didube 2014: Result & Stats

Samegrelo

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Didube 2014

7/7/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 3rd RoundChkhorotskus Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Samegrelo10%

×Draw13%

Didube 201477%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamegreloExpected goals in this matchDidube 2014

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.29

Samegrelo

1.15

Didube 2014

3.29

Didube 2014 creates 186% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

2.17

4.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Samegrelo

0.80

Didube 2014

2.17

allows per match

Samegrelo

4.40

Didube 2014

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samegrelo+0.00on par

Didube 2014+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samegrelo ↓

Didube 2014 →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Samegrelo or draw

23%

Samegrelo or Didube 2014

87%

Draw or Didube 2014

90%

Winning margin

Samegrelo wins by 2+

Didube 2014 wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Samegrelo 1+ goals

68%

Samegrelo 2+ goals

32%

Samegrelo 3+ goals

11%

Didube 2014 1+ goals

96%

Didube 2014 2+ goals

83%

Didube 2014 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Samegrelo (draw refunded)

11%

Didube 2014 (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samegrelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Didube 2014 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samegrelo attack 0.80 + Didube 2014 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Didube 2014 attack 2.17 + Samegrelo defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Samegrelo scores more

10%

level

13%

Didube 2014 scores more

77%

Didube 2014 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Didube 2014 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff