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Samegrelo vs Betlemi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Samegrelo
Samegrelo
FT
0 – 7
Betlemi
Betlemi
5/13/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samegrelo7%
×Draw10%
Betlemi83%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samegrelo
1.15
Betlemi
3.83

Betlemi creates 233% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samegrelo
0.80
Betlemi
3.25

allows per match

Samegrelo
4.40
Betlemi
1.50

finishing

Samegrelo+0.00on par
Betlemi+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samegrelo ↓

Betlemi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Samegrelo or draw
17%
Samegrelo or Betlemi
90%
Draw or Betlemi
93%

Winning margin

Samegrelo wins by 2+
2%
Betlemi wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Samegrelo 1+ goals
68%
Samegrelo 2+ goals
32%
Samegrelo 3+ goals
11%
Betlemi 1+ goals
98%
Betlemi 2+ goals
88%
Betlemi 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Samegrelo (draw refunded)
8%
Betlemi (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samegrelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

Betlemi away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samegrelo attack 0.80 + Betlemi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Betlemi attack 3.25 + Samegrelo defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Samegrelo scores more
7%
level
10%
Betlemi scores more
83%

Betlemi at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Betlemi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Samegrelo 0–7 Betlemi

Betlemi beat Samegrelo 7-0 in David Kipiani Cup on May 13, 2023.