Şamaxı FK 2–1 Zira: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Şamaxı FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zira

K. Rossi 62' (pen)

A. Msanga 54'

G. Papunashvili 8'

12/13/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 15Shamakhi City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Şamaxı FK32%

×Draw28%

Zira40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchZira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.24

Şamaxı FK

1.09

Zira

1.24

Zira creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

0.95

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.95

Zira

1.18

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.30

Zira

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Zira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Zira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

60%

Şamaxı FK or Zira

72%

Draw or Zira

68%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

13%

Zira wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

66%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

30%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

10%

Zira 1+ goals

71%

Zira 2+ goals

35%

Zira 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

45%

Zira (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Zira away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.95 + Zira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Zira attack 1.18 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

32%

level

28%

Zira scores more

40%

Zira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

11'

44'

54'

62'

62'

E. Bogomolskiy← Martins Junior

62'

K. RossiPenalty

77'

Q. Aliyev

77'

E. Kuliyev← C. Nuriyev

83'

E. Adilkhanov← O. Mammadov

83'

R. Muradov← Q. Aliyev

88'

E. Suleymanov← A. Msanga

90+6'

E. Kuliyev

90+4'

Antonio Lara← R. Apolinario

Şamaxı

Zira

97

Silva

4

Renato

29

▼

Nuriyev

32

▼

Aliyev

10

⚽

Papunashv

17

Gomis

11

▼

Junior

5

Mutsinzi

30

▼

28

25

1

82

5

3

8

⚽

▼

Msanga

97

▼

Mammadov

9

⚽

Rossi

13

▼

11

4

44

Manager: Aykhan Abbasov

83'▲E. Adilkhanov←▼O. Mammadov

88'▲E. Suleymanov←▼A. Msanga

90+4'▲Antonio Lara←▼R. Apolinario

Şamaxı FK substitutes

62Seyiahmadov99Hashimov17Maharramli7Adilkhanov80Ismayilov27Suleymanov19Shuaibu21Ismayilov14Gafarov24Muradly6Lara77Mehraliyev

Manager: Rashad Sadiqov

62'▲I. Ibrahimli←▼Guima

62'▲E. Bogomolskiy←▼Martins Junior

77'▲E. Kuliyev←▼C. Nuriyev

83'▲R. Muradov←▼Q. Aliyev

Zira substitutes

41Nazirov13Bayramov16Bayramov6Kuliyev8Ibrahimli21Hacyly14Alicanov33Eyubov48Muradov43Suleymanzade7Muradov77Bogomolskiy

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Zira

Şamaxı FK beat Zira 2-1 in Premyer Liqa on December 13, 2025.

Goals: G. Papunashvili (8'), A. Msanga (54'), K. Rossi (62' pen).

The match was played at Shamakhi City Stadium in Shamakhi.

Şamaxı FK vs Zira — Premyer Liqa 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Zira