Şamaxı FK 0–1 Turan: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Şamaxı FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Turan

Alex Negueba 30'

2/23/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 24Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Şamaxı FK27%

×Draw29%

Turan44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchTuran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.27

Şamaxı FK

0.93

Turan

1.27

Turan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

0.96

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.96

Turan

1.24

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.29

Turan

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Turan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

56%

Şamaxı FK or Turan

71%

Draw or Turan

73%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

9%

Turan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

61%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

24%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

7%

Turan 1+ goals

72%

Turan 2+ goals

36%

Turan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

38%

Turan (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Turan away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.96 + Turan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Turan attack 1.24 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

27%

level

29%

Turan scores more

44%

Turan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Alex Negueba

47'

57'

59'

A. Tîrcoveanu← R. Rüstəmli

62'

A. Guseynov← X. Nəcəfov

77'

A. Ghaderi← Kauan

77'

F. Yusifli← R. Sadıxov

81'

M. Vəliyev← E. Adilxanov

86'

S. Bağirov← R. Məhərrəmli

86'

C. Hüseynov← A. Msanga

87'

89'

90+2'

Şamaxı

Turan

1

15

88

32

40

▼

Kauan

23

Serrano

9

Christian

10

▼

Nəcəfov

7

Zülfüqarl

17

▼

Sadıxov

21

⚽

1

32

66

17

▼

Məhərrəml

5

Ağcabəyov

33

▼

Msanga

82

Abbasov

93

Konaté

6

▼

Rüstəmli

24

▼

Adilxanov

12

Thuíque

Manager: A. Abbasov

59'▲A. Tîrcoveanu←▼R. Rüstəmli

81'▲M. Vəliyev←▼E. Adilxanov

86'▲S. Bağirov←▼R. Məhərrəmli

86'▲C. Hüseynov←▼A. Msanga

Şamaxı FK substitutes

30Tîrcoveanu23Vəliyev60Bağirov18Hüseynov62Seyidəhmədov85Bayramov89Muxtarov14Məsimov19Məmmədli3Veremieiev

Manager: K. Berdyev

62'▲A. Guseynov←▼X. Nəcəfov

77'▲A. Ghaderi←▼Kauan

77'▲F. Yusifli←▼R. Sadıxov

Turan substitutes

11Guseynov6Ghaderi13Yusifli8Bayramlı29Krachkovskiy39Quliyev41Samok71Hacıyev30Əlizadə44Əhmədov77Rzayev33Turabov