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Şamaxı FK vs Turan — Premyer Liqa 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turan
Turan
9/3/2022Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 5Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Şamaxı FK32%
×Draw29%
Turan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.02
Turan
1.16

Turan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 73 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
0.89
Turan
1.14

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
1.18
Turan
1.15

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
61%
Şamaxı FK or Turan
71%
Draw or Turan
68%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
12%
Turan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
64%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
27%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
8%
Turan 1+ goals
69%
Turan 2+ goals
32%
Turan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
45%
Turan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

Turan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.89 + Turan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Turan attack 1.14 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
32%
level
29%
Turan scores more
39%

Turan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Şamaxı FK 0–1 Turan

Turan beat Şamaxı FK 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.