Şamaxı FK 1–0 Sumqayıt: Result & Stats

Şamaxı FK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sumqayıt

B. Konaté 60'

2/9/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 22Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Şamaxı FK36%

×Draw28%

Sumqayıt36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchSumqayıt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Şamaxı FK

1.15

Sumqayıt

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

0.96

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.96

Sumqayıt

1.00

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.29

Sumqayıt

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Sumqayıt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

64%

Şamaxı FK or Sumqayıt

72%

Draw or Sumqayıt

64%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

15%

Sumqayıt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

68%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

32%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

11%

Sumqayıt 1+ goals

68%

Sumqayıt 2+ goals

32%

Sumqayıt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

50%

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Sumqayıt away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.96 + Sumqayıt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sumqayıt attack 1.00 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

36%

level

28%

Sumqayıt scores more

36%

Şamaxı FK at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

B. Pusi

46'

S. Taşqın← E. Bədəlov

57'

G. Kharaishvili← R. Kehat

57'

M. Milović← Alan

60'

B. Konaté

70'

R. Vásquez← A. Süleymanlı

70'

K. Quliyev← J. Jaloliddinov

76'

C. Hüseynov← R. Rüstəmli

84'

C. Huseynov

86'

V. Məsimov← B. Konaté

89'

A. Ağcabəyov← R. Məhərrəmli

89'

Michael Thuíque← E. Adilxanov

Şamaxı

Sumqayıt

1

Cənnətov

14

▼

Bədəlov

17

Xaçayev

5

▼

Alan

20

▼

Süleymanl

19

▼

Kehat

7

Muradov

8

Abdullaza

77

▼

60

11

1

32

66

3

17

▼

Məhərrəml

33

Msanga

82

Abbasov

93

⚽

▼

Konaté

6

▼

Rüstəmli

24

▼

Adilxanov

9

Pusi

Manager: A. Abbasov

76'▲C. Hüseynov←▼R. Rüstəmli

86'▲V. Məsimov←▼B. Konaté

89'▲A. Ağcabəyov←▼R. Məhərrəmli

89'▲Michael Thuíque←▼E. Adilxanov

Şamaxı FK substitutes

18Hüseynov14Məsimov5Ağcabəyov12Thuíque19Məmmədli23Vəliyev30Tîrcoveanu60Bağirov62Seyidəhmədov85Bayramov89Muxtarov

Manager: V. Cavadov

46'▲S. Taşqın←▼E. Bədəlov

57'▲G. Kharaishvili←▼R. Kehat

57'▲M. Milović←▼Alan

70'▲R. Vásquez←▼A. Süleymanlı

70'▲K. Quliyev←▼J. Jaloliddinov

Sumqayıt substitutes

2Taşqın12Kharaishvili95Milović23Vásquez30Quliyev36Fərzullayev41Cahangirov94Əzizli21Əhmədzadə29Əlizadə66Əliyev75Orucov