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Şamaxı FK vs Qaradağ Lökbatan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
3/13/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 18Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Şamaxı FK55%
×Draw23%
Qaradağ Lökbatan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.02

Şamaxı FK creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
2.23
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.12

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
0.92
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.36

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Qaradağ Lökbatan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
79%
Şamaxı FK or Qaradağ Lökbatan
77%
Draw or Qaradağ Lökbatan
45%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
31%
Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
83%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
53%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
26%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
64%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
27%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
72%
Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 2.23 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.12 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
55%
level
23%
Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
21%

Şamaxı FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Qaradağ Lökbatan

Şamaxı FK and Qaradağ Lökbatan drew 2-2 in Birinci Dasta on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.