Şamaxı FK 1–2 Qarabag: Result & Stats

Şamaxı FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Qarabag

O. Mammadov 14'

C. Duran 90'

J. Montiel 18'

2/10/2026

Premyer Liqa · Round 19Shamakhi City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Şamaxı FK23%

×Draw24%

Qarabag54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.73

Şamaxı FK

1.03

Qarabag

1.73

Qarabag creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

0.96

creates per match

2.10

1.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.96

Qarabag

2.10

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.35

Qarabag

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

46%

Şamaxı FK or Qarabag

76%

Draw or Qarabag

77%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

8%

Qarabag wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

64%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

28%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

9%

Qarabag 1+ goals

82%

Qarabag 2+ goals

52%

Qarabag 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

30%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.96 + Qarabag defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Qarabag attack 2.10 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

23%

level

24%

Qarabag scores more

54%

Qarabag at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

O. Mammadov

18'

J. Montiel

40'

B. Mustafazada

46'

E. Adilkhanov← A. Tircoveanu

56'

J. Montiel

59'

A. Msanga

63'

Matheus Silva

65'

T. Bayramov← E. Cafarquliyev

65'

M. Qurbanly← Kady Borges

84'

E. Suleymanov← A. Msanga

84'

90+2'

90+5'

90+5'

90+1'

B. Ismayilov← O. Mammadov

90+1'

R. Muradov← D. Balau

90'

C. Duran

Şamaxı

Qarabag

99

Kochalski

13

Mustafaza

44

▼

Cafarquli

10

Zoubir

81

Medina

20

▼

Borges

2

Silva

9

⚽

Montiel

15

Andrade

35

Bicalho

17

⚽

1

5

2

97

⚽

▼

Mammadov

82

Abbasov

9

▼

Rossi

10

▼

Tircovean

11

▼

Balau

4

Cezar

44

Santos

8

▼

Msanga

Manager: Aykhan Abbasov

46'▲E. Adilkhanov←▼A. Tircoveanu

84'▲E. Suleymanov←▼A. Msanga

84'▲A. Shuaibu←▼K. Rossi

90+1'▲B. Ismayilov←▼O. Mammadov

90+1'▲R. Muradov←▼D. Balau

Şamaxı FK substitutes

62Seyiahmadov99Hashimov17Maharramli80Ismayilov21Ismayilov27Suleymanov7Adilkhanov48Muradov77Mehraliyev14Gafarov90Mansumov19Shuaibu

Manager: Qurban Qurbanov

65'▲T. Bayramov←▼E. Cafarquliyev

65'▲M. Qurbanly←▼Kady Borges

Qarabag substitutes

97Buntic55Huseynov77Sheydayev27Bayramov22Qurbanly32Cabrayilzada3Mmaee18Bolt6Chriso21Kashchuk11Addai24Gnali

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag

Qarabag beat Şamaxı FK 2-1 in Premyer Liqa on February 10, 2026.

Goals: O. Mammadov (14'), J. Montiel (18'), C. Duran (90').

The match was played at Shamakhi City Stadium in Shamakhi.

Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag