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Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Qarabag
Qarabag
3/8/2020Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 20ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Şamaxı FK18%
×Draw24%
Qarabag58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
0.80
Qarabag
1.67

Qarabag creates 109% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
0.89
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
1.18
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
42%
Şamaxı FK or Qarabag
76%
Draw or Qarabag
82%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
5%
Qarabag wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
55%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
19%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
5%
Qarabag 1+ goals
81%
Qarabag 2+ goals
50%
Qarabag 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
23%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.89 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
18%
level
24%
Qarabag scores more
58%

Qarabag at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag

Qarabag beat Şamaxı FK 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.