Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Şamaxı FK vs Qabala — Premyer Liqa 2025

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Qabala
Qabala
1/24/2026Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 17Shamakhi City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Şamaxı FK38%
×Draw28%
Qabala34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.21
Qabala
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
0.95
Qabala
0.88

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
1.37
Qabala
1.47

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Qabala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Qabala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
66%
Şamaxı FK or Qabala
72%
Draw or Qabala
62%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
16%
Qabala wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
70%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
34%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
12%
Qabala 1+ goals
68%
Qabala 2+ goals
31%
Qabala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
53%
Qabala (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Qabala away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.95 + Qabala defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Qabala attack 0.88 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
38%
level
28%
Qabala scores more
34%

Şamaxı FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Şamaxı FK 0–4 Qabala

Qabala beat Şamaxı FK 4-0 in Premyer Liqa on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Shamakhi City Stadium in Shamakhi.