Şamaxı FK 2–1 Qabala: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Şamaxı FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Qabala

10/26/2019

Premyer Liqa · Round 9Bayıl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Şamaxı FK41%

×Draw28%

Qabala32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchQabala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.09

Şamaxı FK

1.28

Qabala

1.09

Şamaxı FK creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

0.89

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.89

Qabala

1.00

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.18

Qabala

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Qabala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Qabala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

68%

Şamaxı FK or Qabala

72%

Draw or Qabala

59%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

18%

Qabala wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

72%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

37%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

14%

Qabala 1+ goals

66%

Qabala 2+ goals

30%

Qabala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

56%

Qabala (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

Qabala away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.89 + Qabala defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Qabala attack 1.00 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

41%

level

28%

Qabala scores more

32%

Şamaxı FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff