Şamaxı FK 0–1 Araz: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Şamaxı FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Araz

Felipe Santos 44'

5/17/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 35Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Şamaxı FK40%

×Draw26%

Araz34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Şamaxı FKExpected goals in this matchAraz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.25

Şamaxı FK

1.37

Araz

1.25

Şamaxı FK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

0.96

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Şamaxı FK

0.96

Araz

1.22

allows per match

Şamaxı FK

1.29

Araz

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Araz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Araz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw

66%

Şamaxı FK or Araz

74%

Draw or Araz

60%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+

18%

Araz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals

75%

Şamaxı FK 2+ goals

40%

Şamaxı FK 3+ goals

16%

Araz 1+ goals

71%

Araz 2+ goals

36%

Araz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)

54%

Araz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Araz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.96 + Araz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.37

Araz attack 1.22 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more

40%

level

26%

Araz scores more

34%

Şamaxı FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

21'

24'

44'

46'

F. Məmmədli← A. Tîrcoveanu

62'

E. Məmmədov← M. Vəliyev

63'

Jatobá← Felipe Santos

67'

E. Mammadov

78'

C. Muxtarov← A. Msanga

78'

C. Meza Colli← M. Kuzmanović

86'

C. Meza Colli

86'

R. Rustamli

88'

S. Ağalarov← Ü. İsgəndərov

90+3'

V. Masimov

Şamaxı

Araz

12

17

2

34

3

6

97

⚽

▼

Santos

29

Wanderson

23

Rodrigues

14

▼

Kuzmanovi

7

▼

1

5

14

33

▼

18

82

20

30

▼

Tîrcovean

6

Rüstəmli

24

Adilxanov

23

▼

Vəliyev

Manager: A. Abbasov

46'▲F. Məmmədli←▼A. Tîrcoveanu

62'▲E. Məmmədov←▼M. Vəliyev

78'▲C. Muxtarov←▼A. Msanga

Şamaxı FK substitutes

19Məmmədli73Məmmədov89Muxtarov62Seyidəhmədov85Bayramov

Manager: E. Baxşıyev

63'▲Jatobá←▼Felipe Santos

78'▲C. Meza Colli←▼M. Kuzmanović

88'▲S. Ağalarov←▼Ü. İsgəndərov

Araz substitutes

8Jatobá21Colli71Ağalarov11Qurbanov20Vəlizadə22Mustafayev26Buludov88Alizade94Əhmədli