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Şamaxı FK vs Araz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Araz
Araz
10/19/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 10Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Şamaxı FK37%
×Draw29%
Araz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.16
Araz
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
0.89
Araz
1.00

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
1.18
Araz
1.42

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Araz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Araz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
66%
Şamaxı FK or Araz
71%
Draw or Araz
63%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
16%
Araz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
69%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
32%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
11%
Araz 1+ goals
66%
Araz 2+ goals
30%
Araz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
52%
Araz (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

Araz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.89 + Araz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Araz attack 1.00 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
37%
level
29%
Araz scores more
34%

Şamaxı FK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs Araz

Araz beat Şamaxı FK 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.