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Samartex vs Nations — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nations
Nations
1/25/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Samartex Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Samartex54%
×Draw31%
Nations15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.19
Nations
0.49

Samartex creates 143% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
Nations
0.53

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
Nations
0.98

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Nations →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
85%
Samartex or Nations
69%
Draw or Nations
46%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
24%
Nations wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
70%
Samartex 2+ goals
33%
Samartex 3+ goals
12%
Nations 1+ goals
39%
Nations 2+ goals
9%
Nations 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
78%
Nations (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nations attack 0.53 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Samartex scores more
54%
level
31%
Nations scores more
15%

Samartex at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samartex 2–0 Nations

Samartex beat Nations 2-0 in Premier League on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Samartex Park in Tarkwa.