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Samartex vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
E. Osei Wusu 39'
E. Acquah 33'
F. A. Kumi 15'
3/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Samartex67%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.73
Kotoku Royals
0.53

Samartex creates 226% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
89%
Samartex or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
33%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
39%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
82%
Samartex 2+ goals
52%
Samartex 3+ goals
25%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
41%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
10%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
86%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Samartex scores more
67%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
11%

Samartex at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
F. A. Kumi
33'
E. Acquah
39'
E. Osei Wusu
51'
C. Kudjoe← C. Kudjoe
64'
R. Amoah← R. Amoah
64'
F. Okai← F. Okai
64'
S. Klutse← S. Klutse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samartex vs Kotoku Royals

Samartex beat Kotoku Royals 2-1 in Premier League on March 29, 2023.

Goals: F. A. Kumi (15'), E. Acquah (33'), E. Osei Wusu (39').

The match was played at Nsenkyire Sports Arena in Samreboi.