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Samartex vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
R. Kwofie 14'
1/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Samartex60%
×Draw25%
King Faisal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.54
King Faisal
0.59

Samartex creates 161% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 58 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
86%
Samartex or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
40%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
32%
King Faisal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
79%
Samartex 2+ goals
45%
Samartex 3+ goals
20%
King Faisal 1+ goals
45%
King Faisal 2+ goals
12%
King Faisal 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
81%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Samartex scores more
60%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
14%

Samartex at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
R. Kwofie
34'
E. KeyekehMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samartex 1–0 King Faisal

Samartex beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on January 29, 2023.

Goals: R. Kwofie (14').

The match was played at Nsenkyire Sports Arena in Samreboi.