Samartex 3–2 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

Samartex

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Berekum Chelsea

4/14/2024

Premier League · Round 26Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Samartex59%

×Draw26%

Berekum Chelsea15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamartexExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.59

Samartex

1.48

Berekum Chelsea

0.59

Samartex creates 151% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 108 away

1.40

creates per match

0.73

0.46

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Samartex

1.40

Berekum Chelsea

0.73

allows per match

Samartex

0.46

Berekum Chelsea

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Samartex or draw

85%

Samartex or Berekum Chelsea

74%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

41%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+

31%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals

77%

Samartex 2+ goals

43%

Samartex 3+ goals

19%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

45%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

12%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)

80%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Samartex scores more

59%

level

26%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

15%

Samartex at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff