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Samartex vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
6/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Samartex54%
×Draw29%
Aduana Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.32
Aduana Stars
0.60

Samartex creates 120% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
83%
Samartex or Aduana Stars
71%
Draw or Aduana Stars
46%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
26%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
73%
Samartex 2+ goals
38%
Samartex 3+ goals
15%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
45%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
12%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
76%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Samartex scores more
54%
level
29%
Aduana Stars scores more
17%

Samartex at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samartex 2–1 Aduana Stars

Samartex beat Aduana Stars 2-1 in Premier League on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Nsenkyire Sports Arena in Samreboi.