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Samarra vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Samarra
Samarra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
12/31/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 15Samaraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Samarra28%
×Draw27%
Erbil45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samarra
1.04
Erbil
1.38

Erbil creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 110 away

creates per match

Samarra
0.79
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Samarra
1.64
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Samarra+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samarra ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Samarra or draw
55%
Samarra or Erbil
73%
Draw or Erbil
72%

Winning margin

Samarra wins by 2+
11%
Erbil wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Samarra 1+ goals
65%
Samarra 2+ goals
28%
Samarra 3+ goals
9%
Erbil 1+ goals
75%
Erbil 2+ goals
40%
Erbil 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Samarra (draw refunded)
39%
Erbil (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samarra at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samarra attack 0.79 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Erbil attack 1.11 + Samarra defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Samarra scores more
28%
level
27%
Erbil scores more
45%

Erbil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Samarra 1–2 Erbil

Erbil beat Samarra 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 31, 2021.

The match was played at Samaraa Stadium in Samarra.