Samarra 1–1 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Samarra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Minaa Basra

11/15/2021

Iraqi League · Round 9Al Taji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Samarra32%

×Draw28%

Al Minaa Basra40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamarraExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.25

Samarra

1.09

Al Minaa Basra

1.25

Al Minaa Basra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

0.79

creates per match

0.86

1.64

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Samarra

0.79

Al Minaa Basra

0.86

allows per match

Samarra

1.64

Al Minaa Basra

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samarra+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samarra ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Samarra or draw

60%

Samarra or Al Minaa Basra

72%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

68%

Winning margin

Samarra wins by 2+

13%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Samarra 1+ goals

66%

Samarra 2+ goals

30%

Samarra 3+ goals

10%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

71%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

36%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Samarra (draw refunded)

45%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samarra at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samarra attack 0.79 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Samarra defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samarra scores more

32%

level

28%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

40%

Al Minaa Basra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff