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Sámano vs Velarde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Velarde
Velarde
10/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Campo de fútbol de Sámano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sámano59%
×Draw23%
Velarde18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.76
Velarde
0.84

Sámano creates 110% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Velarde
0.76

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Velarde
2.00

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Velarde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Velarde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
82%
Sámano or Velarde
77%
Draw or Velarde
41%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
34%
Velarde wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
83%
Sámano 2+ goals
52%
Sámano 3+ goals
26%
Velarde 1+ goals
57%
Velarde 2+ goals
21%
Velarde 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
77%
Velarde (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Velarde away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Velarde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Velarde attack 0.76 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sámano scores more
59%
level
23%
Velarde scores more
18%

Sámano at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Sámano 1–3 Velarde

Velarde beat Sámano 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sámano in Cantabria.