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Sámano vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
3/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Estadio Vallegon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sámano56%
×Draw24%
Textil Escudo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.71
Textil Escudo
0.91

Sámano creates 88% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
80%
Sámano or Textil Escudo
76%
Draw or Textil Escudo
44%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
31%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
82%
Sámano 2+ goals
51%
Sámano 3+ goals
24%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
60%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
23%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
74%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sámano scores more
56%
level
24%
Textil Escudo scores more
20%

Sámano at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Sámano 1–0 Textil Escudo

Sámano beat Textil Escudo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Vallegon in Cantabria.