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Sámano vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Campo de fútbol de Sámano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sámano47%
×Draw27%
Siete Villas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.40
Siete Villas
0.96

Sámano creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
74%
Sámano or Siete Villas
73%
Draw or Siete Villas
53%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
23%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
75%
Sámano 2+ goals
41%
Sámano 3+ goals
17%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
62%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
25%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
65%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sámano scores more
47%
level
27%
Siete Villas scores more
26%

Sámano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sámano vs Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Sámano 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sámano in Cantabria.