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Sámano vs Revilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Revilla
Revilla
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Campo de fútbol de Sámano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sámano52%
×Draw25%
Revilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.62
Revilla
0.99

Sámano creates 64% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Revilla
1.04

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Revilla
1.72

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Revilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
77%
Sámano or Revilla
75%
Draw or Revilla
48%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
28%
Revilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
80%
Sámano 2+ goals
48%
Sámano 3+ goals
22%
Revilla 1+ goals
63%
Revilla 2+ goals
26%
Revilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
69%
Revilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.62

Revilla attack 1.04 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sámano scores more
52%
level
25%
Revilla scores more
23%

Sámano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Sámano 2–1 Revilla

Sámano beat Revilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sámano in Cantabria.