Sámano 1–0 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Sámano

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarnizo

4/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Campo de fútbol de Sámano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sámano43%

×Draw27%

Guarnizo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SámanoExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.08

Sámano

1.36

Guarnizo

1.08

Sámano creates 26% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

1.52

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sámano

1.52

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Sámano

0.93

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Guarnizo →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sámano or draw

70%

Sámano or Guarnizo

73%

Draw or Guarnizo

57%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+

20%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals

74%

Sámano 2+ goals

39%

Sámano 3+ goals

16%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

66%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

29%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)

59%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sámano scores more

43%

level

27%

Guarnizo scores more

30%

Sámano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff