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Sámano vs Cartes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cartes
Cartes
9/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo de fútbol de Sámano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sámano58%
×Draw24%
Cartes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.65
Cartes
0.80

Sámano creates 106% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Cartes
0.66

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Cartes
1.77

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Cartes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
82%
Sámano or Cartes
76%
Draw or Cartes
42%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
32%
Cartes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
81%
Sámano 2+ goals
49%
Sámano 3+ goals
23%
Cartes 1+ goals
55%
Cartes 2+ goals
19%
Cartes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
76%
Cartes (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cartes attack 0.66 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sámano scores more
58%
level
24%
Cartes scores more
18%

Sámano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sámano vs Cartes

Cartes beat Sámano 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sámano in Cantabria.