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Salzburger AK vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Salzburger AK
Salzburger AK
FT
3 – 0
Adnet
Adnet
9/22/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 928 BLACK ARENA-Nonntal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Salzburger AK47%
×Draw22%
Adnet30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salzburger AK
1.88
Adnet
1.47

Salzburger AK creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

creates per match

Salzburger AK
1.67
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

Salzburger AK
1.73
Adnet
2.08

finishing

Salzburger AK+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburger AK ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Salzburger AK or draw
70%
Salzburger AK or Adnet
78%
Draw or Adnet
53%

Winning margin

Salzburger AK wins by 2+
26%
Adnet wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Salzburger AK 1+ goals
85%
Salzburger AK 2+ goals
56%
Salzburger AK 3+ goals
29%
Adnet 1+ goals
77%
Adnet 2+ goals
43%
Adnet 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)
61%
Adnet (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburger AK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburger AK attack 1.67 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Adnet attack 1.21 + Salzburger AK defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salzburger AK scores more
47%
level
22%
Adnet scores more
30%

Salzburger AK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salzburger AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Salzburger AK 3–0 Adnet

Salzburger AK beat Adnet 3-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at 28 BLACK ARENA-Nonntal in Salzburg.