Salzburg U19 3–2 PSG U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

PSG U19

P. Verhounig 52', 22'

O. Lukić 46'

Q. Mbitcha 90+3'

M. Sangaré 85'

12/10/2024

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 6Akademie Liefering Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Salzburg U1946%

×Draw20%

PSG U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchPSG U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.90

Salzburg U19

2.25

PSG U19

1.90

Salzburg U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

2.65

creates per match

2.19

1.60

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

PSG U19

2.19

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.60

PSG U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

PSG U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

67%

Salzburg U19 or PSG U19

80%

Draw or PSG U19

54%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

27%

PSG U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

65%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

39%

PSG U19 1+ goals

85%

PSG U19 2+ goals

56%

PSG U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

58%

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + PSG U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

PSG U19 attack 2.19 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

46%

level

20%

PSG U19 scores more

33%

Salzburg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Y. Khafi

22'

P. Verhounig↳ O. Lukić

36'

J. Brandtner

46'

O. Lukić↳ E. Aguilar

52'

P. Verhounig↳ V. Sulzbacher

62'

E. Bagbonon← M. Diaby

62'

Q. Mbitcha← O. Camara

65'

T. Paumgartner← J. Pokorny

66'

I. Ivanschitz← K. Bendra

71'

M. Jangeal← Y. Khafi

77'

Alexander Murillo← O. Adejenughure

77'

Q. Rackl← O. Lukić

80'

T. Trummer

84'

M. Brandt← E. Aguilar

85'

M. Sangaré↳ I. Mbaye

90+1'

Q. Rackl

90+3'

Q. Mbitcha↳ M. Sangaré

Salzburg

PSG

23

3

4

30

6

▼

Diaby

8

▼

Khafi

11

▼

Camara

15

Nzinga

12

Tape

9

⚽A

Sangaré

49

A

Mbaye

41

Zawieschi

47

Hussauf

24

▼

Pokorny

7

▼

Bendra

40

Brandtner

29

A

Sulzbache

37

Trummer

21

⚽A

▼

Lukić

9

⚽2

Verhounig

38

▼

Adejenugh

43

A

▼

Aguilar

Manager: D. Beichler

65'▲T. Paumgartner←▼J. Pokorny

66'▲I. Ivanschitz←▼K. Bendra

77'▲Alexander Murillo←▼O. Adejenughure

77'▲Q. Rackl←▼O. Lukić

84'▲M. Brandt←▼E. Aguilar

Salzburg U19 substitutes

8Paumgartner23Ivanschitz15Murillo17Rackl22Brandt32Winklhofer16Zangerl18Moser2Avdić

Manager: D. Suarez

62'▲E. Bagbonon←▼M. Diaby

62'▲Q. Mbitcha←▼O. Camara

71'▲M. Jangeal←▼Y. Khafi

PSG U19 substitutes

5Bagbonon10Mbitcha18Jangeal33Ly16Vignaud35Mbemba25Nay2Dramé20Ayari

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs PSG U19

Salzburg U19 beat PSG U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2024.

Goals: P. Verhounig (22', 52'), O. Lukić (46'), M. Sangaré (85'), Q. Mbitcha (90+3').

The match was played at Akademie Liefering Platz 1 in Salzburg.

Salzburg U19 vs PSG U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs PSG U19