Salzburg U19 4–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Salzburg U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Olympique Lyonnais U19

C. Adamu 55', 54', 45+1'

B. Okoh 39'

E. Wissa 78'

F. da Silva 71'

Y. Soumaré 30'

8/19/2020

UEFA Youth League · Quarter-finalsCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Salzburg U1946%

×Draw20%

Olympique Lyonnais U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.89

Salzburg U19

2.21

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.89

Salzburg U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

2.63

creates per match

2.20

1.58

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.63

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.58

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

66%

Salzburg U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

80%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

54%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

27%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

65%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

38%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

85%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

56%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.63 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

46%

level

20%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

34%

Salzburg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Antosch

10'

J. Gazibegovic

30'

Y. Soumaré↳ M. Mbenga

39'

B. Okoh↳ J. Gazibegović

45'

45'

45+1'

54'

55'

57'

61'

N. Stosic← M. Kjærgaard

61'

A. Prass← C. Adamu

62'

D. Dib← N. Bonnet

62'

N. Benaissa← M. El Arouch

63'

67'

71'

72'

72'

77'

I. Lomami← M. Altikulac

77'

B. Barcola← E. Coly

78'

E. Wissa

90+3'

A. Prass

90+3'

S. Aigner← P. Pokorný

Salzburg

Olympique

1

Ousmane

4

Lukeba

3

▼

Altikulac

2

Gusto

5

Felix

11

⚽

Soumaré

6

⚽

Silva

7

A

▼

Mbenga

8

▼

Bonnet

10

▼

Arouch

9

A

▼

Coly

1

Antosch

22

A

Gazibegov

4

Affengrub

3

Dedić

33

⚽

Okoh

13

Seiwald

6

▼

Pokorný

25

A

▼

Sučić

8

▼

Kjærgaard

9

⚽3

▼

Adamu

7

A

▼

Adeyemi

Manager: B. Svensson

61'▲N. Stosic←▼M. Kjærgaard

61'▲A. Prass←▼C. Adamu

72'▲S. Major←▼L. Sučić

72'▲B. Šeško←▼K. Adeyemi

90+3'▲S. Aigner←▼P. Pokorný

Salzburg U19 substitutes

36Stosic27Prass16Major29Šeško5Aigner23Böckle21Stejskal

Manager: E. Hély

57'▲E. Wissa←▼M. Mbenga

62'▲D. Dib←▼N. Bonnet

62'▲N. Benaissa←▼M. El Arouch

77'▲I. Lomami←▼M. Altikulac

77'▲B. Barcola←▼E. Coly

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

18Wissa15Dib14Benaissa12Lomami17Barcola16Joao13Boueye

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 4–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Salzburg U19 beat Olympique Lyonnais U19 4-3 in UEFA Youth League on August 19, 2020.

Goals: Y. Soumaré (30'), B. Okoh (39'), C. Adamu (45+1', 54', 55'), F. da Silva (71'), E. Wissa (78').

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.

Salzburg U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 4–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19