Salzburg U19 0–1 Nantes U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nantes U19

M. Gomes 19'

2/28/2024

UEFA Youth League · Round of 16Akademie Liefering Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Salzburg U1946%

×Draw24%

Nantes U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchNantes U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.31

Salzburg U19

1.69

Nantes U19

1.31

Salzburg U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

1.61

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Nantes U19

1.00

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Nantes U19

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Nantes U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Nantes U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

70%

Salzburg U19 or Nantes U19

76%

Draw or Nantes U19

54%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Nantes U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

50%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

24%

Nantes U19 1+ goals

73%

Nantes U19 2+ goals

38%

Nantes U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Nantes U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Nantes U19 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nantes U19 attack 1.00 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

46%

level

24%

Nantes U19 scores more

30%

Salzburg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

M. Gomes

36'

J. Schuster

46'

O. Lukić← T. Paumgartner

46'

R. Žiković← J. Schuster

61'

G. Diakité← Z. Jánó

68'

L. Gautier← S. Appuah

75'

Elione Neto← V. Sulzbacher

76'

C. Djonda← B. Guirassy

76'

B. Nzita← D. Assoumani

80'

R. Zikovic

81'

J. Brandtner← J. Mellberg

82'

M. Philippe

87'

T. Trummer

90+4'

S. Touré← E. Mafoumbi

Salzburg

Nantes

1

15

4

2

5

8

10

▼

Assoumani

6

⚽

Gomes

11

▼

Appuah

7

▼

Guirassy

9

▼

Mafoumbi

30

Hamzić

27

Atiabou

5

▼

Schuster

2

Schablas

6

▼

Mellberg

10

▼

Jánó

24

▼

Paumgartn

29

▼

37

23

22

Manager: O. Cinel

46'▲O. Lukić←▼T. Paumgartner

46'▲R. Žiković←▼J. Schuster

61'▲G. Diakité←▼Z. Jánó

75'▲Elione Neto←▼V. Sulzbacher

81'▲J. Brandtner←▼J. Mellberg

Salzburg U19 substitutes

21Lukić39Žiković20Diakité35Neto14Brandtner9Reischl34Zawieschitzky

Manager: S. Moreau

68'▲L. Gautier←▼S. Appuah

76'▲C. Djonda←▼B. Guirassy

76'▲B. Nzita←▼D. Assoumani

90+4'▲S. Touré←▼E. Mafoumbi

Nantes U19 substitutes

3Gautier14Djonda18Nzita17Touré12Mwamba13Chauvin16Bacle

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Nantes U19

Nantes U19 beat Salzburg U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Gomes (19').

The match was played at Akademie Liefering Platz 1 in Salzburg.

Salzburg U19 vs Nantes U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Nantes U19